I think this also lines up with the idea that crypto is going through a bit of an institutional gartner hype cycle right now. There was a spike in hype about institutional crypto adoption but no real use still, the clarity act hasn't even gotten through yet.
Perhaps we are in the trough now and 2026 starts to see us out of it into a double bubble type situation like 2019 into 2020/2021 was.
Developing a theory that we're behaving analogous to 2019 currently. This fits in with my thoughts that this run has (so far) not been a broad-based liquidity driven bull run like previous ones. It also fits in with my thoughts that the credit/liquidity cycle has extended and thus BTC cycle has extended and we're 1-2 years behind.
Similarities:
-Gradual bleed top, not blowoff
-QT during the whole run
-QT ended a few months after the top
-Strain on the repo market showing up after the top (SOFR > fed rate)
-Top was when fed rates started dropping a few months before QT ended
-Rates were flat for months before that
-SPX did well in 2018
-2019 even though BTC was in a bear for most of that, like SPX has been outperforming now
-SPX crash shortly before the BTC top into a new SPX ATH after the BTC top, just like now with the tariff crash
-Gold was pumping during 2019, just like it has been this whole run, whereas gold was flat for the 2020
-2021 bull.
So many similarities I can barely fit them all on this one chart. Btw, if you remove the covid crash, BTC bottomed about 10 weeks after QT ended, so around Valentine's Day 2026 this time around.
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