Managed to get out of the crypto shorts and buy big during the nuke, then sold it all to flat over the last couple hours. No easy task to get out with zero market maker liquidity.
Kept the NQ short on at 100% of AUM. Think we see more selling next week, won't be surprised to see -10% from the top by next friday. Market was severely underpricing geopolitical risks and still is.
Ethereum at $3900 is way too high in a dangerous geopolitical climate. Some chance bitcoin follows gold up, but base case is all these billions that just went into ETFs come right back out.
Also think it's very bad that coins wicked down as far as they did. If you posted a short thesis on Dot yesterday calling for 60 cent prices, everyone would ignore you. But now, that doesn't sound so unreasonable.
All money is collective delusion. Crypto just turned it up a notch. But when the world gets tense, no one wants to be the last believer.
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