Is there a logic to the rise and fall of the market? - There must be. But it is certainly not random, otherwise Wall Street will not survive, and market makers will have no food to eat. What really drives the price is the capital structure + emotional cycle + institutional game. 1⃣ Capital structure: who is present, who leaves, who has leverage, and who is forced to close the position. Rise and fall are often the transfer of chips between different groups, not news-driven, but position-driven. 2⃣ Emotional cycle: greed and fear are always pulling, and the essence of market ups and downs is the amplification of emotional fluctuations - at the top, the good also falls; At the bottom, the bearish also rose. Prices do not reflect facts, prices first amplify expectations, and then shape facts in turn. 3⃣ Institutional game: regulation, monetary policy, exchange rules, determine whether money can come in and how quickly it can go out, and then determine the speed and magnitude of fluctuations. In other words: The logic of the rise and fall of the market is not the logic of price →, but the logic of → capital flow → price, and then the price retraces to the influence logic. If you try to explain the reasons for rising or falling with a single formula, you will be disappointed! Today is a red day, which is very suitable for thinking about the logic of your next operation!