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#MayCPIHikeWatch May CPI Tonight: The Last Inflation Print Before the Fed's June Call May CPI drops at 8:30 AM ET tonight, and this one actually matters. It's the last inflation read before the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, and the market is already leaning heavily bearish on the outcome. TD Securities is forecasting headline at 4.2% YoY, up sharply from April's 3.4%. Core at 2.8%. If the print lands anywhere near that, the Fed has no room to cut in June. Reuters surveyed economists and 70% now see zero cuts in 2026. Goldman Sachs has already pushed their first cut call to 2027 and raised their hike probability to 20%. The most telling signal right now is gold. Iran tensions are running hot, and gold just fell below $4,200 to a 3-month low. Geopolitical risk is normally gold's best friend. But the market is clearly pricing a different chain reaction: hot CPI = tighter Fed = stronger USD = sell gold. When a traditional safe haven ignores a war premium, it tells you where the real fear is positioned. Macro is eating geopolitics alive right now. #MayCPIHikeWatch isn't ironic. The question stopped being "when do cuts come?" a while ago. Now it's "how seriously should we take the hike scenarios?" A 4.2% headline print makes that a very short conversation. Soft landing thesis is running out of runway. How are you reading tonight? Share your thoughts in the comments 👇 $BTC $NVDA $XAU