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Boldly deducing the impact of the Walsh era Federal Reserve on the financial markets and BTC, ETH in the second half of this year Walsh's tenure + Trump's pressure + high oil prices): Walsh's main line: simultaneous rate cuts + balance sheet reduction, weakening forward guidance, data dependence, emphasizing independence[]. Macroeconomic environment: high oil prices + sticky inflation + economic resilience → fewer rate cuts than market expectations, continuous balance sheet reduction. Traditional markets: US Treasury long end strong, dollar weak then strong, US stocks structurally differentiated, commodities strong, gold strong[]. BTC/ETH: fluctuating upward, increased volatility, BTC stronger than ETH, new highs expected in the second half; rhythm: pressure in July-August, turning point in September, main upward wave from October to December. 1. The Walsh era Federal Reserve: core policy combination (second half of 2025) 1. Walsh's core three-pronged approach (immediately implemented after taking office) Simultaneous rate cuts + balance sheet reduction (loose price, tight quantity) Rate cuts: no action in July, 25bp cuts in September and November. Balance sheet reduction: from passive to active, reducing the balance sheet by $60 billion per month (currently about $30 billion), aiming to reduce the balance sheet by $1 trillion within a year (equivalent to a 50bp rate hike). Logic: balance sheet reduction pressures long-term inflation, rate cuts lower short-term financing costs, responding to Trump's demand for rate cuts while maintaining independence[]. Abolishing the dot plot + weakening forward guidance No longer "painting a pie" for the market, "data-dependent" at every meeting, walking while watching. Impact: market volatility ↑, expectations unstable, short-term trading becomes difficult, long-term funds dominate. New inflation framework: focusing on "trimmed mean PCE" Excluding extreme fluctuations like energy, core inflation readings are lower and easier to cut rates. However, with high oil prices persisting, headline CPI fluctuates, limiting the space for rate cuts. 2. Trump factor: strong pressure for rate cuts + Middle East geopolitical disturbances Public pressure: demanding rates below 1%, threatening to change personnel, frequently attacking on Twitter[]. Substantial impact: Walsh's verbal compliance, conservative actions → rate cut pace slower than Trump expected, faster than Powell's era[]. Middle East: continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, oil price center at $105–115, inflation hard to decrease, low ceiling for rate cuts. 3. Federal Reserve rhythm in the second half of 2025 (timeline) July: maintain status quo, state "data-dependent, ready to cut rates", slightly hawkish. August: oil prices surge + inflation rebounds, market rate cut expectations cool, volatility increases. September: first rate cut of 25bp, while announcing accelerated balance sheet reduction, "hawkish rate cut", long bond yields fall then rise. October: sticky inflation + economic resilience, market expects another cut in November, risk assets rebound. November: another cut of 25bp, hinting that "rate cuts are nearing the end", slightly hawkish conclusion. December: maintain status quo, emphasizing "balance sheet reduction continues, rates maintained at high levels for long enough". 2. Impact on traditional financial markets 1. Bond market: long end strong, curve steepening Short end (2 years): declines with rate cuts, 3.8%→3.2%. Long end (10 years): balance sheet reduction + sticky inflation, fluctuating between 4.4%→4.7%, hard to break 5%. Curve: bear steepening (short rates down, long rates stable), favorable for banks and real estate, unfavorable for high valuation growth[]. 2. Dollar: weak then strong, center elevating July-August: rate cut expectations + Walsh uncertainty, dollar 103→101[]. After September: hawkish rate cuts + balance sheet reduction + high rates for longer, dollar 101→106, year-end center 104[]. 3. Stock market: structural differentiation, strong energy/gold, weak growth Under pressure: technology/AI, high valuation consumption, long bond sensitive sectors (high rates, tight liquidity) []. Benefiting: oil and gas, energy equipment, gold, commodities, banks, value stocks (inflation hedge, steepening yield curve) []. Index: US stocks fluctuating weakly, increased volatility. 4. Crude oil: strong upward movement, center elevating Crude oil: $105–120, center at $110, supported by geopolitical + supply-demand gap. 3. Impact on BTC/ETH (second half of 2025, core conclusion: first suppressed then rising, fluctuating upward, BTC stronger than ETH) 1. Transmission chain (Walsh + Trump + oil prices) High oil prices → sticky inflation → fewer rate cuts + balance sheet reduction → tight liquidity → pressure in July-August; September hawkish rate cuts + liquidity expectation recovery + safe-haven demand → wave[]. Turning point; from October to December, rate cuts implemented + institutional funds entering + supply-demand after halving → main upward wave. 2. Price range and rhythm (baseline 70%) BTC (second half of 2025) July-August: under pressure and fluctuating, range $58,000–68,000, center $63,000 (high inflation + balance sheet reduction expectations suppressing) []. September: turning point rebound, rate cuts + balance sheet reduction implemented, safe-haven funds flowing in, range $68,000–78,000[]. October-December: main upward wave, institutional ETF continuous inflow + supply-demand tight after halving + macro uncertainty, range $78,000–95,000, year-end center $85,000, high probability of new highs[]. ETH (second half of 2025, weaker than BTC) July-August: $2,600–3,200, center $2,900 (low DeFi activity, funds leaning towards BTC) []. September: $3,200–3,800, rebound lagging behind BTC[]. October-December: $3,800–4,800, year-end center $4,300 (post-merge narrative + slow institutional fund entry) []. 3. Key catalysts (led by Walsh + Trump) September FOMC: hawkish rate cuts + accelerated balance sheet reduction, market interprets as "bad news out of the way", BTC/ETH rebound starts[]. Trump tweets: Middle East conflict escalates → oil prices break $120 → BTC short-term sharp drop followed by enhanced safe-haven attributes, rapid rebound; rate cut pressure → liquidity expectations improve → direct rebound[]. Institutional funds: continuous net inflow into BTC ETF, slow expansion of ETH ETF, long-term allocation funds support limited downside[]. 4. Three scenarios Baseline (70%): BTC $58,000–95,000, ETH $2,600–4,800, first suppressed then rising, fluctuating upward, BTC stronger than ETH[]. Optimistic (15%): Middle East easing + Walsh exceeding expectations for easing, BTC $95,000–110,000, ETH $4,800–5,800[]. Pessimistic (15%): conflict escalation + Walsh facing resistance, rate cuts delayed, BTC $52,000–58,000, ETH $2,200–2,600[].

Boldly speculate on the oil price trend for the next month and its impact on the financial market and BTC, ETH. "With oil prices fluctuating at high levels, initially suppressed then rising, and liquidity dominating BTC/ETH," combined with **Trump (Middle East blockade + strong pressure to cut interest rates + energy intervention) and Walsh (taking office in May, balance sheet reduction + interest rate cuts in parallel, weakening forward guidance) conclusions: oil price center moves up, volatility increases; financial market "hawk-dove tug-of-war"; BTC/ETH's fluctuation range expands, turning points advance, and rebounds become stronger. 1. Oil prices in the next 30 days (5/1–5/31): Trump directly raises volatility and the center 1. Core influence of Trump Middle East blockade intensifies (4/29): Continued blockade of Iran, prohibition of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, about 30% of global seaborne crude oil is obstructed, and the supply gap expands to 12 million barrels/day, strongly bullish for oil prices. Verbal pressure on oil prices: openly favoring $40–50/barrel, but lacking substantial production capacity (U.S. shale has limited short-term increments), divergence between words and actions → market volatility amplifies. Energy intervention: invoking the Defense Production Act to release U.S. energy, but difficult to offset the Middle East gap in the short term, only slightly suppressing the upward space. Negotiation fluctuations: sometimes talking about "ceasefire," sometimes "long-term blockade," with geopolitical risk premiums continuing to rise in early May[]. 2. Walsh (monetary policy → dollar → oil prices) Walsh takes office in mid-May, "balance sheet reduction + interest rate cuts" in parallel: short-term dollar weakens, real interest rates decline, and commodity (including crude oil) valuations rise. Weakened forward guidance, data dependence: policy uncertainty ↑ → dollar volatility ↑ → oil price volatility ↑. 3. Adjusted oil price trend (baseline 70%) Range: Brent $102–120/barrel, center $110 (originally $105). Rhythm: 5/1–5/12: Strong upward movement (continuation of blockade + Walsh confirming expectations), hitting $115–120. 5/13–5/22: High-level fluctuations (Walsh's appointment + Trump's verbal cooling), range $105–115. 5/23–5/31: Mild retreat (marginal export recovery + high-level demand suppression), falling to $102–108, difficult to break $100 (cost + geopolitical support). Scenarios: Optimistic (15%): U.S.-Iran ceasefire + UAE increased production, $95–105. Pessimistic (15%): Escalation of conflict + complete blockade of the Strait, $120–130. 2. Trump's strong pressure + Walsh's "balance sheet reduction and interest rate cuts," tug-of-war 1. Inflation and monetary policy Oil prices → inflation rebound (CPI 3.5%+), hawks oppose interest rate cuts; but Trump publicly pressures (demanding rates below 1%) + Walsh firmly supports rate cuts, May FOMC "hawk-dove tug-of-war." Walsh's path: Maintain interest rates in May + release signals for June rate cuts + gradual balance sheet reduction starting in June (monthly $30 billion). Market pricing: 10-year U.S. Treasury yield 4.4%–4.7% (fluctuating upward), dollar index 103–105 (weak first then strong, weakening in the early days of Walsh's appointment). 2. Stock market differentiation intensifies Under pressure: growth/technology, high-valuation consumption (high rates + inflation squeezing profits). Benefiting: oil and gas, energy equipment, gold, commodities (inflation hedging + geopolitical safe haven). Index: U.S. stocks fluctuate weakly, volatility amplifies. 3. Commodities and foreign exchange Commodities: crude oil, refined oil, natural gas strong; industrial metals (copper and aluminum) fluctuate at high levels, demand side under pressure; Foreign exchange: dollar weak first then strong; non-dollar currencies (euro, yen) under pressure; resource country currencies (CAD, AUD) relatively resilient. 3. BTC/ETH: Liquidity expectations dominate, range expands, turning points advance, rebounds become stronger 1. Transmission chain of Trump + Walsh Short-term (5/1–5/15): High oil prices → inflation rebound → hawks resist rate cuts → liquidity tightens → BTC/ETH under pressure; but Trump's strong pressure for rate cuts + expectations of Walsh taking office → limited downside[]. Mid-term (5/16–5/31): Walsh officially takes office → "balance sheet reduction + interest rate cuts" implemented → liquidity expectations recover → risk assets rebound; balance sheet reduction (tight long end) + interest rate cuts (loose short end) → growth stocks and crypto assets relatively benefit[]. Additional impact: Trump uncertainty ↑ → safe-haven funds flow into BTC (enhanced digital gold attributes). 2. Adjusted price range and rhythm (baseline 70%) BTC: 5/1–5/15: Under pressure and fluctuating, range $58,000–68,000 (originally $62,000–68,000, lower limit moved down). 5/16–5/31: Stabilizing rebound, range $68,000–75,000 (originally $68,000–72,000, upper limit moved up). Center: $68,000, initially suppressed then rising, volatility amplifies. ETH: 5/1–5/15: Weaker than BTC, range $2,600–3,200 (originally $2,800–3,200, lower limit moved down). 5/16–5/31: Rebound lags, range $3,200–3,800 (originally $3,200–3,600, upper limit moved up). Center: $3,200, BTC strong, ETH weak pattern continues. 3. Key catalysts 5/6 FOMC: Powell's last meeting, maintaining interest rates unchanged + hawkish statements (short-term bearish); but releasing June rate cut expectations (mid-term bullish). 5/11–5/15: Walsh officially takes office, delivers first speech, confirming "balance sheet reduction + interest rate cuts" path (key turning point, bullish). Trump tweets: Middle East situation, pressure for rate cuts, crypto-related statements (could trigger volatility at any time). 4. Scenarios Optimistic (15%): U.S.-Iran ceasefire + Walsh exceeds expectations for easing, BTC $75,000–80,000, ETH $3,800–4,400. Pessimistic (15%): Escalation of conflict + Walsh facing resistance, rate cuts delayed, BTC $52,000–58,000, ETH $2,200–2,600. 4. Trading and allocation insights Oil prices: Buy on dips in early May (102–105), take profit at 115+; in mid to late May, buy back in batches at 102–105, reduce positions at 110+. Traditional finance: Overweight energy, gold, cash; underweight growth, high-valuation consumption; gradually increase positions in interest rate-sensitive sectors (real estate, utilities) starting mid-May. BTC/ETH: Reduce positions on highs from 5/1–5/15, buy back in batches at $58,000–62,000; after 5/16, mainly hold, gradually take profit at $72,000+; ETH relatively underweight, BTC as the main focus.

Stablecoin Sector Daily Briefing April 30, 2026 • U.S. senators push the "Clarity Act" into review stage, alleviating banking concerns over stablecoin yields. • Visa expands its stablecoin settlement network to 9 blockchains, with an annualized scale reaching $7 billion, making Polygon the largest USD stablecoin payment network. • The Hong Kong Monetary Authority issues the first batch of stablecoin licenses, with HSBC and Diginex set to issue a Hong Kong dollar stablecoin, while warning about the risks of fake stablecoins. • Circle partners with Mesh to enhance USDC cross-chain settlements, covering over 900 million users globally. • Hang Seng Electronics reports a staggering 342.87% increase in net profit attributable to shareholders in Q1 2026, benefiting from investment income of 133 million yuan. • Tether launches a self-custody wallet, tether.wallet, and initiates a Bitcoin faucet, with Bitcoin holdings surpassing 97,000 coins. • Circle receives increased investment from Dongfang Harbor Overseas Fund, with a market value exceeding $300 million. • Paxos integrates with Toku to launch an interest-embedded stablecoin payroll feature, with 39% of global respondents earning income through stablecoins. • Ripple collaborates with OKX to launch the RLUSD stablecoin, expanding market competition against USDT and USDC.

I. Core Conclusions from the Federal Reserve Meeting (FOMC on April 29, 2026) Interest Rate Decision: Maintain the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75%, unchanged for the third consecutive time, with a vote of 8:4 (increased divergence) []. Core Tone: Higher for Longer, with expectations for rate cuts in 2026 reduced to a maximum of once (25bp), earliest in September, or possibly no cuts throughout the year. Inflation Assessment: Inflation remains high, partly influenced by rising oil prices due to the Middle East situation, reaffirming the 2% inflation target, no cuts until the target is met []. Economic Evaluation: The economy is expanding steadily; job growth is weak, and the unemployment rate is stabilizing; the Middle East situation is the biggest uncertainty []. Balance Sheet Reduction Policy: Maintain a monthly reduction of $30 billion in Treasury bonds, expected to end around October, with tight signals unchanged. II. Full Policy Statement (Condensed Bilingual Version) Federal Reserve (FOMC) Policy Statement on April 29, 2026 Economic activity is expanding steadily; job growth is weak, and the unemployment rate has remained stable in recent months; inflation is high, partly reflecting rising global energy prices, Committee Goals: Full employment + 2% inflation; the worsening situation in the Middle East adds uncertainty to the outlook, focusing on the dual risks of the dual mandate []. Maintain the interest rate at 3.5%-3.75%; future adjustments will be cautiously assessed based on data, outlook, and risk balance; a firm commitment to 2% inflation Continuously monitor the impact of information on the economic outlook; adjust policies as necessary to achieve goals. Voting Results In Favor (8 members): Powell, Williams, Barr, Bowman, Cook, Jefferson, Paulson, Waller [__LINK_ICON]. Against (4 members): Milan (advocating a 25bp rate cut); Harmack, Kashkari, Logan (opposing the dovish tone). III. Key Interpretations from Powell's Press Conference (April 30, early morning) 1. Inflation: Stickiness exceeds expectations, high threshold for rate cuts Core PCE inflation expectations revised up to 2.7% (previously 2.4%), far above the 2% target. Clearly stated: No conditions for rate cuts in April-May, first rate cut window in September-October, depending on inflation data. Oil Price Shock: Middle East conflict raises oil prices, significant inflation upside risk, and does not rule out resuming rate hikes (non-standard scenario). 2. Employment: Strong resilience, no downward pressure Employment shows a weak balance of "low hiring, low layoffs," with the unemployment rate stable around **4.4%**, no signs of deterioration. The job market is neither hot nor cold, no need for rate cuts to support it, focusing on curbing inflation. 3. Policy Path: Bi-directional openness, data-dependent Refuses to commit to rate cuts, emphasizes "no preset path," everything depends on data. Subtle wording adjustment: Removed "additional adjustments," suggesting the next step could be either an increase or a decrease, indicating a bi-directional risk in policy. 4. Balance Sheet Reduction: Clear end pace, ending in October Maintain a monthly reduction of $30 billion in Treasury bonds, MBS reduction continues, QT to end in October. The balance sheet is about $6.5 trillion, and after the end, it will shift to technical purchases to maintain stable reserves. 5. Power Transition: Powell's farewell, Waller to take office This is Powell's last time presiding over the FOMC, retiring on May 15, with Waller taking over in June. Waller advocates for "rate cuts + balance sheet reduction" to proceed in parallel, with long-term balance sheet reduction to below $3 trillion, difficult to be aggressive in the short term. IV. Market Impact and Interpretation 1. Dollar and U.S. Treasuries Dollar: Hawkish statements support a short-term strengthening of the dollar, with the index possibly returning to 106+. U.S. Treasuries: Delayed rate cut expectations, long-end yields rising, with the 10-year possibly breaking 4.5%. 2. Stock Market and Gold U.S. Stocks: High rates suppress growth stocks, with AI and value stocks diverging, short-term volatility downward. Gold: Unchanged rates + inflation concerns, short-term volatility, difficult to surge, focusing on September rate cut signals. 3. Global and China Global: Dollar repatriation, emerging markets under pressure, capital outflow + currency depreciation risks rising. China: High U.S. rates increase the independent easing space for Chinese monetary policy, opening a window for reserve requirement and interest rate cuts; the yuan is under short-term pressure, fluctuating between 7.2-7.3. V. Core Summary and Outlook One-sentence summary: Rates unchanged, hawkish tone, delayed rate cuts, balance sheet reduction nearing end, power transition. Policy Logic: Inflation stickiness + economic resilience + Middle East risks, the Fed chooses "higher for longer" to avoid repeating the stagflation of the 1970s. Outlook: The June FOMC may remain unchanged, with September being a key window; if core PCE falls below 2.3%, a 25bp rate cut may be initiated; otherwise, no rate cuts throughout the year. Do you need me to condense the above interpretations into a one-page key conclusion and timeline for quick review?

As of 2026-04-29 23:00 (UTC+8), the core conclusions from the past 24 hours are: Middle East deadlock + UAE exits OPEC + Bank of Japan hawkish stance + super central banks preemptively hedging, leading to a global decline in risk assets, a surge in oil prices, and a strengthening of the dollar; BTC/ETH have retreated from highs, showing a bearish oscillation. 1. Major events in the past 24 hours (4/28 23:00–4/29 23:00) 1) Geopolitics: Middle East crisis escalates (strongest mainline) Iran submits a "three-step" negotiation proposal: first ceasefire, then discuss Strait navigation, and finally discuss the nuclear program. The U.S. directly vetoes, insisting that nuclear issues must take priority; U.S.-Iran talks are at a standstill. The risk of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz surges, with about 30% of global oil transport obstructed. U.S. Treasury Department ban: prohibits U.S. individuals/entities from paying navigation fees to Iran, further escalating tensions[]. 2) Energy supply: UAE announces exit from OPEC+, oil prices jump UAE officially announces: will exit OPEC and OPEC+ starting May 1, significantly weakening the organization's pricing power[]. World Bank (4/28): Energy prices expected to surge by 24% in 2026, with Brent crude averaging $86 per barrel[]. Market: Brent breaks $111 per barrel (+2.1%), WTI breaks $105, reaching a new high for the year[]. 3) Central banks and macro: Super central banks on the eve, hawkish expectations rise Bank of Japan (4/28): maintains 0.75% unchanged, but significantly raises inflation expectations (1.9%→2.8%), lowers growth (1.0%→0.5%), signaling a rate hike to 1.0% in June, leading to accelerated withdrawal of yen arbitrage funds from risk assets[]. U.S. April consumer confidence: 92.8 (expected 89.4), a new high for the year, reinforcing expectations of "high inflation + high interest rates for longer"[]. IMF (4/29): Global growth forecast for 2026 revised down to 3.1%; if oil prices persist, it may drop to 2.5%, with inflation possibly reaching 5.4%. Key schedule (4/30 early morning): Federal Reserve FOMC decision + Powell's last press conference + Waller's nomination vote (hawkish, balance sheet reduction stance). 4) Technology and earnings reports: Four tech giants report after hours, tech stocks under pressure Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta will release Q1 earnings after the U.S. East Coast market closes on 4/29, with the market being cautious at high levels, leading to a general decline in tech stocks[__LINK_ICON]. 2. Impact on global financial markets 1) Major asset performance (24h) Stocks: U.S. stock indices fluctuate and retreat (-0.8%~-1.5%); Asia-Pacific declines broadly (Nikkei -1.2%, A-shares -0.9%); risk aversion dominates[]. Bonds: U.S. Treasury yields rise (10Y → 4.78%), with high inflation + hawkish expectations suppressing bond prices. Commodities: Oil surges (+2.1%); gold oscillates at high levels ($4,870 per ounce), with risk aversion and rising real interest rates hedging each other. Forex: The dollar index strengthens (105.8 → 106.5); the yen appreciates slightly due to rate hike expectations. 2) Core logic chain Middle East deadlock → oil price surge → inflation expectations rise → central banks maintain high interest rates/delay rate cuts → growth stocks and risk asset valuations under pressure → funds shift to dollar, oil, gold for hedging. 3. Impact on BTC/ETH (as of 4/29 23:00) 1) Price snapshot (24h) BTC: $75,800 (-1.3%), intraday high $81,000, low $74,200, showing a clear retreat from highs and significant long liquidation. ETH: $2,285 (-1.1%), relatively weak compared to BTC, with outflows from DeFi and institutional funds. Fear and Greed Index: 26 (fear), significantly down from yesterday's 33. 2) Key drivers (mainly bearish) Macro liquidity tightening: Japan's hawkish rate hike signals trigger liquidation of yen arbitrage funds, with high-leverage crypto assets being the first to bear the brunt. Misalignment of risk aversion logic: the current market prefers traditional safe-haven assets like the dollar, U.S. Treasuries, and oil, with BTC's "digital gold" attribute temporarily weakened. Super central banks preemptively hedging: Waller's hawkish expectations + the Fed maintaining high interest rates lead institutions to reduce positions for hedging, with ETFs experiencing continuous net outflows. Derivatives pressure: BTC at high levels ($79k–$81k) sees $430 million in long liquidations, triggering a chain of stop-losses. 3) Support and resistance (short-term) BTC: support at $74,000–$75,000; resistance at $77,800–$78,500. ETH: support at $2,220–$2,250; resistance at $2,350–$2,380. 4) Follow-up points of interest (within 48h) 4/30 early morning: Fed decision + Waller's vote; if hawkish outcomes materialize, BTC/ETH may test support zones. Oil price transmission: if Brent stabilizes above $110, inflation expectations may further rise, putting continued pressure on crypto assets. 4. Brief summary The past 24 hours have been centered around the Middle East deadlock + energy supply shocks + central bank hawkish expectations, leading to a global decline in risk assets, with oil and the dollar strengthening; BTC/ETH have retreated from highs, and sentiment has turned to fear, showing a short-term bearish oscillation, with a focus on the Fed's decision and Waller's vote results on 4/30 early morning.

Powell's "final battle," what should you really be watching for at night? (The FOMC on April 28-29, 2026) This meeting is the last FOMC meeting during Chairman Powell's term, which officially ends on May 15; the core conclusion is preemptive: interest rates remain unchanged, the real game is not about rate cuts, but about the characterization of inflation, the pace of balance sheet reduction, the direction of policy changes, and oil price risks. 1. Core foundational data Current benchmark interest rate range: 3.50%–3.75% Historical path: Peak of 5.25%–5.50% in July 2023 → multiple rate cuts landing in 2025 to the current range Consensus expectation for this decision: maintain interest rates unchanged, no rate hikes, no rate cuts Key background: rising inflation stickiness, increasing oil prices, overlapping pressure from leadership changes, policy entering a "high interest rate maintenance period" 2. What you don't need to watch (no game, no variables) Policy benchmark interest rate: completely locked in unchanged, no unexpected space Latest dot plot/economic forecast: no updates from this meeting, March guidance is the only reference Immediate short-term shift: Powell will not forcefully ease or tighten at the curtain call 3. The four core variables you must closely monitor (determining global asset pricing for the next six months) 1. Meeting statement + press conference wording: hawkish-dovish shift is the first signal March was dovish: acknowledged inflation decline, moderate economic slowdown Potential changes this time: Whether to remove the statement "inflation continues to cool" Whether to add "inflation upside risks are increasing, oil price shocks are persistent" Policy wording revised from "moderately accommodative expectations" to maintaining restrictive rates for a longer time Impact: hawkish wording shift → significant postponement of rate cut expectations (from mid-year to year-end or even cancellation) 2. Details on balance sheet reduction QT (core liquidity) Current balance sheet reduction pace: has reduced Treasury and MBS monthly holding limits Core highlights: Clarify the QT termination timeline (market consensus expects Q4 2026) Whether to further slow the pace of balance sheet reduction, or to terminate passive reduction early Logic: early termination of balance sheet reduction = marginal easing of dollar liquidity, favorable for growth assets and commodities; continued reduction would suppress risk assets 3. Federal Reserve power transition (medium to long-term policy landscape) Timeline: Powell steps down as chairman on May 15, Walsh is the core candidate for succession Two key questions: ① After Powell steps down, will he remain a Federal Reserve governor until 2028? ② Powell's policy orientation for the next team: will it weaken the Fed's independence and cater to the administration's low interest rate demands? Far-reaching impact: remaining = strong continuity of monetary policy; complete departure = significant increase in subsequent policy uncertainty 4. Energy + inflation characterization: distinguish between "short-term shocks" & "long-term pressures" Current reality: Middle East situation drives oil prices higher, directly transmitting to consumer and industrial inflation Key question: How does Powell define this round of oil price increases? If characterized as a short-term supply shock: monetary policy will not tighten passively, market sentiment stabilizes If characterized as persistent inflation risks: directly locks in rate cuts for the year, even restarting discussions on rate hikes 4. Simplified market linkage logic Hawkish wording + high inflation risk recognition → U.S. Treasury yields rise, dollar strengthens, growth sectors of the stock market come under pressure Slowing balance sheet reduction/early end + continuous policy signals → liquidity easing, risk assets warm up Rising uncertainty in leadership changes → global risk aversion sentiment rises, gold and U.S. Treasuries' safe-haven attributes strengthen 5. One-sentence ultimate summary Don't watch interest rates, watch the wording; don't watch rate cuts, watch inflation resilience; don't watch short-term policies, watch the leadership change landscape. Powell's final battle is not a farewell market, but rather sets the core policy tone for global interest rates, the dollar, and commodities in the second half of 2026.

Will Brother Ma Ji get liquidated tomorrow?

Little by little, it adds up; lying in wait, waiting for the right moment to act, respecting risks. A leaf, a world; a thought, a cause and effect. Copy trading tip: Only trade $ETH, build positions in 10 increments, with a maximum of 15. Pay attention to the position value of the copy trade. Waiting for the opportunity to build positions, waiting... Recently, there was a small market movement, a game of verbal sparring between the US and Iran. It's a market beyond my capabilities, truly hard to grasp. Waiting... … $ETH ​​​​​

The era of the new Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh has begun, impacting financial markets and BTC, ETH. 1. What exactly is Warsh's "tightening easing"? 1. The essence of the policy mix If Kevin Warsh takes over as Chairman of the Federal Reserve, he will implement a "rate cut + balance sheet reduction" policy known as "tightening easing." It seems contradictory, but in reality, it aims to reshape the authority of the Federal Reserve. The superficial effect of the action is to lower interest rates, reduce the cost of capital, stimulate the economy to meet the high growth targets of the Trump administration, support the economy with liquidity while significantly reducing the balance sheet and contracting the monetary base, tightening long-term liquidity to force fiscal discipline on the U.S. government, and sending a strong signal to the market that "inflation is controllable," thereby restoring the authority of the Federal Reserve. 2. The core reasons supporting his logic The deflationary effect of AI: He believes that the productivity revolution brought by AI can offset the inflationary pressure from rate cuts, making easing more sustainable. Methodological optimization of inflation indicators: He tends to use trimmed mean inflation (filtering extreme fluctuations), making inflation data appear milder and providing "data support" for rate cuts. Ultimate goal: To create a more independent Federal Reserve that focuses more on inflation targets and has a more centralized voice, free from direct political interference in monetary policy. 2. My view: Can this policy mix be implemented in reality? ✅ Reasonable aspects The motivation for balance sheet reduction is very realistic: The current Federal Reserve balance sheet still has nearly $7 trillion, and reducing the balance sheet can tighten long-term liquidity while imposing fiscal constraints on the U.S. government, indeed a means to restore the authority of the Federal Reserve. The impact of AI on inflation has a long-term logic: AI improves production efficiency and reduces marginal costs, which will indeed bring structural deflationary pressure in the long run, providing more space for monetary policy. "Conditional easing" is the trend of the future: The market is already tired of "flooding" type easing; structural and constrained easing is more in line with the current macro environment of high inflation and high debt. ⚠️ Contradictions and real constraints (key risk points) The "seesaw effect" of rate cuts and balance sheet reduction What is the upper limit of balance sheet reduction? The scale of U.S. government debt has exceeded $35 trillion, and continuous balance sheet reduction will directly raise the cost of issuing government bonds, potentially triggering a liquidity crisis (the 2019 repo crisis is a cautionary tale). Once financial market volatility occurs, balance sheet reduction will likely be forced to pause, immediately breaking the "independence" of the policy. Inflation is not a "choice," it is a reality Structural inflation factors such as geopolitical conflicts, supply chain restructuring, and a tight labor market cannot be resolved simply by a "tough stance." Over-reliance on the deflationary effect of AI may underestimate the stickiness of service inflation, and too rapid rate cuts may lead to recurring inflation. The independence of the Federal Reserve is itself a result of political games. Warsh's policy essentially still caters to the growth targets of the Trump administration, making it difficult to achieve true "independence." Once the policy effects fall short of expectations, his authority and policy direction will face challenges. 3. Impact analysis on financial markets, BTC/ETH 1. Impact on the overall financial market U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasuries: Rate cuts will suppress the dollar index, but balance sheet reduction will raise long-term U.S. Treasury yields, leading to a short-term weakening of the dollar and rising long-term real interest rates, presenting a "weak dollar + high real interest rate" combination, which is one of the least favorable environments for growth assets. U.S. stocks: In the short term, benefiting from the liquidity easing brought by rate cuts, especially high-dividend and cyclical assets; In the long term, suppressed by balance sheet reduction and high real interest rates, valuations of AI and tech growth stocks will face ongoing pressure. Commodities: Rate cuts will support demand expectations for oil and industrial metals; However, the rise in real interest rates due to balance sheet reduction will suppress the performance of safe-haven assets like gold. 2. Impact on BTC (generally favorable, but with structural differentiation) The core pricing logic of BTC is long-term real interest rates + institutional allocation demand + inflation hedging properties, and Warsh's policy mix has a differentiated impact on BTC: Short-term favorable: The warming expectations for rate cuts will directly boost risk asset sentiment, combined with the current Bitcoin 2026 conference and ETF fund inflows as catalysts, BTC is likely to experience a rally, challenging previous highs. Institutions will view BTC as an "inflation hedging tool in a high real interest rate environment," further increasing allocation demand. Mid-term constraints: The long-term liquidity tightening brought by balance sheet reduction will suppress BTC's valuation, especially when real interest rates continue to rise, BTC's gains will be significantly weaker than in a low-interest-rate environment. The policy's "uncertainty" will exacerbate BTC's volatility; if balance sheet reduction leads to tightened market liquidity, BTC may experience a significant correction. Long-term favorable: This policy mix is essentially "using easing to cover structural problems," which will exacerbate the weakening of dollar credit in the long run, reinforcing BTC's long-term value as "digital gold." 3. Impact on ETH (neutral to bearish, weaker than BTC) The core pricing logic of ETH is DeFi/ecosystem activity + growth stock valuation logic, and its sensitivity to real interest rates is much higher than that of BTC: Short-term following the market, but with limited elasticity: The overall market sentiment recovery brought by rate cuts will drive ETH to rise in sync, but funds will prioritize BTC and other "inflation hedging assets," making ETH's gains likely weaker than BTC. Mid-term pressure from high real interest rates is significant: The rise in long-term real interest rates due to balance sheet reduction will directly suppress risk appetite for DeFi, NFT, Layer 2, etc., affecting ETH's staking yield and ecosystem activity. Institutional funds' allocation to ETH is more based on its ecosystem value; in a high real interest rate environment, the attractiveness of this "growth narrative" will significantly decline. The only potential positive: If Warsh's policies can indeed promote the integration of AI and blockchain, the "AI + DeFi" narrative of ETH may become a temporary highlight, but it is unlikely to change the overall weak pattern. 4. Your trading/allocation If Warsh takes over, the relative strength of BTC/ETH will further widen, prioritize allocating BTC, and be cautious about ETH's short-term rebound. Pay close attention to the pace of balance sheet reduction and changes in real interest rates: If balance sheet reduction leads to long-term U.S. Treasury yields breaking 4.5%, be wary of systemic correction risks in the crypto market. The uncertainty of the policy itself is the biggest risk: This "tightening easing" combination has no historical precedent, and if policy failure or market turmoil occurs, the Federal Reserve will likely be forced to return to the old path of "easing," at which point market logic will completely reverse.

Bitcoin 2026 (April 27–29, Las Vegas) focuses on "compliance implementation + institutional heavy investment + computing power/lightning expansion," which is a short-term positive for BTC and slightly neutral for ETH. In the medium term, it strengthens BTC's position as "digital gold," while ETH's outlook depends on whether the DeFi/AI narrative can attract funding. 🗓️ Conference Basic Information Date: April 27–29, 2026 (The Venetian, Las Vegas) Scale: 30,000–40,000 attendees, 100+ speeches, six major themed stages + Compute Village Positioning: Purely BTC-oriented, no altcoin agenda, focusing on compliance, institutions, and infrastructure 🔍 Five Key Focus Areas 1) Top-level regulatory dialogue (historic) SEC Chair Paul Atkins (first sitting SEC chair to attend): clarifies BTC is not a security, ETF compliance framework CFTC Chair Mike Selig: derivatives compliance, stablecoin regulatory boundaries Impact: Clarification of U.S. regulation, eliminating the greatest uncertainty for institutional entry 2) Corporate/Sovereign-level adoption (institutional heavy investment) Michael Saylor (MicroStrategy): latest corporate treasury allocation plan, ongoing accumulation logic Corporate session (Bitcoin for Corporations): JPMorgan, BlackRock, etc. share BTC balance sheet allocation Sovereign nation discussions: BTC included in foreign exchange reserves, small country hedging cases Key data: Spot ETF monthly inflow over $1.2 billion, institutions hold 4.269 million BTC (about $400 billion) 3) New narratives on computing power and energy (Compute Village) New area: integration of computing power + AI + energy, Bitcoin mining becoming an energy consumption/storage hub Hot topics: renewable energy share surpasses 60%, mining machine AI optimization, Bitcoin as a tool for grid load balancing Impact: Environmental controversies weaken, long-term reduction of ESG funding entry barriers 4) Lightning Network (LN) and Layer 2 expansion New developments in LN: instant payments, fees approaching $0, merchant coverage over a million+ Enterprise applications: Strike and others launch global cross-border settlement solutions, challenging traditional Swift Bitcoin Layer 2 (Stacks, etc.): smart contracts + DeFi, accommodating ETH overflow funds 5) Macro and ETF fund flows Federal Reserve policy: confirmation of interest rate cut cycle, weakening dollar benefits BTC ETF funds: four consecutive weeks of net inflows, single-week $824 million, BlackRock ETF scale surpasses $70 billion Institutional consensus: BTC = digital gold, target price of $100,000–150,000 in 2026 📈 Impact on BTC/ETH ✅ For BTC (direct strong positive) Short term (1–2 weeks): sentiment catalyst + fund entry, high probability of breaking $80,000; beware of "buy the rumor, sell the news," potential pullback after the conference Medium term (3–6 months): regulatory compliance + institutional heavy investment + energy narrative driving threefold, solidifying digital gold status, target over $100,000 Long term: sovereign/corporate reserve asset, forming a dual reserve pattern with gold, market value aligning with **gold ($41 trillion)** ✅ For ETH (neutral to slightly positive, indirect transmission) Short term: funds focus on BTC, ETH performance weaker than BTC; however, DeFi/L2/AI narratives gain new attention Medium term: BTC compliance drives the entire industry, expectations for ETH spot ETF approval rise; AI + blockchain integration (like Base) attracts funds Key differences: BTC is a store of value, ETH is an application platform; the conference reinforces BTC's dominance, ETH needs ecological explosion to close the gap ⚠️ Core risks and points of concern Post-conference pullback curse: average drop of 10–15% after the conference in the past five years, caution at high levels ($75,000–80,000) Regulatory statement deviations: if the SEC continues to emphasize that some BTC products are securities, it may trigger short-term sell-offs Fund diversion: institutions concentrate on BTC, liquidity for ETH and altcoins being drained ✅ Summary and operational reference BTC: short-term fluctuation around $75,000–80,000 with a bullish bias, pullback near $70,000 is an opportunity for institutional accumulation; medium-term outlook over $100,000 ETH: short-term fluctuation in the $3,500–4,000 range, focus on L2 (Base), AI + DeFi project opportunities Strategy: BTC as the main focus, ETH as a supplement, positioning during conference pullbacks, focusing on compliance + institutions + expansion as the three main lines.