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Smart_Money_Circle
Smart_Money_Circle
The 30-year US Treasury yield just touched 5.20%, its highest level since July 2007. Risk assets are feeling every basis point. The drivers are stacking up on multiple fronts. Iran tensions and Strait of Hormuz shipping risks are pushing crude higher. April CPI came in at 3.8%, above expectations. And the bond market is repricing the entire rate outlook. · FedWatch shows December hike probability at ~51%, up from just 1% a month ago · Rate swap markets price in 80%+ odds of at least one hike by year-end · By March 2027, hike probability tops 71% But this isn't just an inflation story. The structural fiscal picture is also shifting. · Trump's "Big Beautiful Bill," signed into law last year, is projected to add $3-4.5T in debt over the next decade · The US has $10T in debt to refinance this year alone · Last week's 30-year auction cleared at 5% for the first time since 2007 · 3-year and 10-year auctions also came in weak The macro landscape is being repriced in real time. BTC is trading below $80,000, and US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw roughly $1B in weekly outflows. Volumes are thinning across the board. But historically, the sharpest macro resets have also created the clearest entry points. The narrative is shifting from "when will they cut" to "will they hike," and that kind of regime change tends to shake out weak hands before rewarding conviction. Are you still buying the dip, or waiting for the dust to settle? #USTreasuryHits19YrHigh #TradeAIStocksOnOKX #SamsungStrikeBegins

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